So it seems that National 2 South is the most competitive it has been for as long as anyone can remember in 2011/12 so I thought I would try and look at some stats from previous years to see if we can predict what will happen this time.
I looked at the number of points scored by the top two promotion spots and also the bottom three relegation spots points scored. I have adjusted for the fact that the number of teams in the league has changed over time but I also seem to remember that for various reasons not all three teams were relegated some seasons, I have not adjusted for this.
So based on that I came up with the following graphs for seasons gone by:
I then also added in the current season adjusting for the number of games gone so far:
We can see from this graph that things are tighter this season and there are no teams that have tailed off, although I did think it would show things tighter still. However, one thing to bear in mind is that the adjusted figures this season do not take into account is the fact that I think teams around the bottom generally pick up more wins towards the end of the season as things gets tight, so the adjusted figures may
One thing I have not adjusted for is the fact that I think teams towards the bottom normally pick it up as it gets tight so they may get proportionally more points.
So with all that tako account I (editor not rugby management) am predicting:
First place: 125
Second place: 120
Third bottom: 53